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Justify Retired

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duanecrisp View Drop Down
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  Quote duanecrisp Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Aug 2018 at 10:34pm
Justify will probably be the only colt to win the derby without a two year old race. Let's see, 6 races in less than four months and all wins. Several wins on very sloppy or hard sealed surfaces. Horses 16 and 3/4 hands and nearly 1400 pounds. Horses like these seldom win on off tracks. He not only won but ran the two yr old champion off his feat on a surface Good Magic absolutely loved. I do agree that most of the other horses in the three year old crop have struggled but Good Magic is the real deal in my opinion. I also think that the European horse that got blasted out of the gate is the real deal who never really got a chance... Tenfold just might be this year Keen Ice... Not a bad group in my opinion.... Now as for retiring this horse after showing filling two different times in his front legs.... Smart move in my opinion.. He's worth a ton in the shed after what he done. The Son Of Scat Daddy will collect checks from all of the major players world wide.... If any of you feel that what he accomplished was not something really special then your not really horse racing fans...
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  Quote donnyb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:42pm
Now that we have recent precendents, what are the chances that Justify - or any other Triple Crown winner - will make an excellent stallion?

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  Quote nextbonus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Sep 2018 at 12:39am
Originally posted by donnyb

Now that we have recent precendents, what are the chances that Justify - or any other Triple Crown winner - will make an excellent stallion?


Please explain. What precedents? Why do you feel a T C winner would be any more or less likely to become successful than a non T C winning prospect?

Thanks
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  Quote beisbol Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Sep 2018 at 3:30pm
Originally posted by nextbonus

Originally posted by donnyb

Now that we have recent precendents, what are the chances that Justify - or any other Triple Crown winner - will make an excellent stallion?


Please explain. What precedents? Why do you feel a T C winner would be any more or less likely to become successful than a non T C winning prospect?

Thanks


I shouldn't post and do drugs (prescription, if that matters).

What I meant to say is... winning a Triple Crown, is that a positive for a prospective sire? I mean... in North America... dirt classic winners aren't always great stallions. For what it's worth.

American Pharaoh babies are selling well, but I have a feeling they will not be much more than 'above average'. I expect his stud fee to be in the $25,000 range in say, 4 years.
Horses who win races and stuff.
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iant View Drop Down
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  Quote iant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 3:36am
I think your question has multiple layers of answers. If you look at the dirt classic winners not always being great stallions look at the simple facts.

Winning dirt classics takes stamina. What percentage of races in North America are run at 9f+ I guess less than 3%. If your genes are most suitable for such a small market share of races your are not likely to succeed. That does not mean the sire is bad it is just not right for the market place it is operating in.

You can see this looking at England and Ireland many classic sires fail on the flat but make great national hunt sires due to the class being passed on but the offspring needing distance. A prime example in recent years being Old Vic brilliant racehorse poor flat sire multiple champion national hunt sire.

Is it positive to win the Triple Crown yes as studs plan to make money or cover costs in the first 4 years at stud before the world knows if the sire is any good. Even if you are right and AP stud fee is $25k at a 100 mares a year that is still good profit rolling in.

Are AP babies selling well? His average is about 1.5 times his stud fee, Lea is around 10 times his stud fee. Which one is selling well in real terms? I would rather have some Lea yearling than AP.       
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  Quote desertdog10 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Nov 2018 at 9:29pm
Here's an insane idea. Judge a racehorse on his racing ability. I get sick of the stallion argument.

Justify beat the horses in front of him. I personally thought it was a weak crop, others disagree.

American Pharoah didn't really beat anyone either. So what, they were exciting to watch. Chrome was a lot of fun to follow. Arrogate was really good for 4 races. Gun Runner was a win machine his last season. All simply beat the horses in front of them.

You can poke holes in every horses career. You also don't prove how good a race horse was by their progeny. That's the most idiotic argument of all. Judge them as a race horse or judge them as a stallion, not both.
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  Quote waremblem5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Nov 2018 at 8:48pm
I concur with the above post, I'll just add that all we can look at is the TC winners from the 70s. Secretariat and Seattle Slew were titanic influences on the breed. Affirmed less so but he wasn't exactly a bust. APs are doing outstanding at the sales and he has a massive book. Justify is an undefeated TC winner, supported by Coolmore, and a son of the hottest stallion around. The deck is really stacked for him, then again Frankel had the same advantages and has been a disappointment. Guess we will see.
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iant View Drop Down
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  Quote iant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Nov 2018 at 7:36am
If you think Frankel is a disappointment you need to section yourself.
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  Quote waremblem5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Nov 2018 at 1:45pm
I guess if your rating is better than Zoffany but worse than Helmet, Frankel is doing just fine.
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